Thursday, July 23, 2009

When And Why To Exit A Rally



This is a common question in the live call room and it has no clear cut answer. See the thing is that each trader has a different style and so for each trader the level to take profit and get out of a rally will always vary. I have heard many different schools of thought but my best advice is to just do “what works for you”. In other words just because I exit with certain criteria does not mean that you should or that Bob should. I make my calls in the live room based on what I am doing and how my fund operates and generally we are in the school of thought of being consistent rather then trying to get every single tick on the table.
So let me share with you why this morning I recently exited the futures market from a day trade near the open. Bottom line was simple that we had a nice run and that at this point we where a few SD away from the mean. The higher away from the mean of the move we get the less the probability becomes of more forward or upward movement. The second thing that alerted me to exiting was the fact that we are now trading above our initial balance. (email me if you want to know more about IB). Look at the chart above and you will see how this YM futures contract was trading above it initial balance area after a very strong uptrend. In this type of opening action usually the IB will be a good bracket for the days action and so I exited all positions. Now if the market continues to take off so be it. We still had a fun ride.(www.tradeinwaves.com)

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Happy 4th


First let me apologize for not writing sooner. I have been working on automation and back testing a lot and been super busy. The good news is I have come up with some great ideas that I will share.
Its right after lunch here and the markets have slowed a lot. After the first 45 minutes of trade today volume really started to slow. If you got the bigger move down today then great. However I want to focus on something I did today and that worked out if you had not hit the move down. I basically waited for a long time for the smallest timeframe I watch to start making significant(email me to define that more) higher highs and higher lows. I then took a very conservative long position. However I had not intention of holding. From this chart you can see what I did was looked at the last significant push down and looked at the distribution(outlined in blue). Normally you would get me looking for the long to move at least across the distribution but today since volume dried up so fast I only looked for the midpoint. As you can see it just barely made it and I was back flat. I’m auk with this . A little pocket change to keep the fund in the green on a otherwise down day for the index’s.
Have a good weekend and I will write more next week.