Balanced Market - Am I At The Circus?

Here is a look at how the futures are trading about an hour into trading. I am still holding a small long QID position which is and inverse to the market . So overall my bias is still to take this market down for a test of yesterdays value . I have my stop very tight at we are in a balanced area and anything can happen here. It’s just a matter of who wants it more now. Notice the balance in the chart below right on the flat regression line and on the high volume in the profile.

In Between Value

I have a few mixed signals this morning before the bell. Normally I like to look at my volume profiles and regressions to see in what way the market may be pulled during the morning session. However, more often then not the market like to settle itself down before the open at it's shorter term midpoint and wait for the day to start. Indeed this is the case today. You can see from this chart that we are sitting at a midpoint and waiting. Let me point out that it looks like we will open right smack down in the middle of our MP value area so let's expect the market to test value extremes for the first part of the day. Note we do have a double distribution yesterday so that may keep price bouncing back and forth.
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Current Heatmap

A Market A Market

Good morning. Looks like futures are going to be down on the open. We have a lot of earnings today as well as some news from a Citi meeting that could be a topic. Putting all that aside I want to look at how the futures are setting up from a more statistical approach.
What caught my eye today was this chart. We we have here is that a the blue line or midpoint of a regression up to the most current tick lies above the highest volume node(red line). this indicates that price should want to pull itself back up and at least try to get back into value. Does this always happen? . But for the last few weeks of trading this has been the case and so I have to take it into consideration today.
I will be looking for any signs of upside rally on the smallest of timeframes to try to get on this side of the trade. Here is the thing. I will not be looking for this price to move across this value until I see it get above the lower green line and start trending with interest up. Any ground below this area will be a shakeout territory. I will try to update more on how this is playing out after the bell.

Delta What..

The overall market internals have been weak the entire day. I have been watching the NYSE tick chart most of the day for more positive sentiment but so far nothing. That being said I have noticed that this last TPO bar(blue) is showing a positive delta. This is the most positive delta reading on the days profile so this could be a sign that buyers are stepping up. I will wait to see how this closes and if it holds the positive number.
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overall weakness

I was looking at 7904 as a testing ground on the YM futures. That level would have ben the completion of a move across a swing value area. This level did provide support but not enough to cause a smaller-timeframe rally. this tells me the market is weak from the get go. Also looking at the NYSE tick we see that hardly any positive readings. If you even thinking longs here I would wait it out before jumping aboard.

You know sometimes things do not always work out and as traders we have to let that be as it may. No use in wondering “what if”, “why didn’t I”, “I should have”. Really it holds no value to wonder these things. It took me awhile to get to the point in which I could look at a situation in a trading day with a grain of salt. That was the day I got my mental health back. Just kidding. Anyway today was a good example of this for me. I was long a QLD trade. And in the chart below I had a second chance to get back in after taking a premature exit. The box represents a point a which the market failed to hold itself down and I should have been in . Well as you can see I missed a nice move. Here is the thing tho. Who cares.. The rest of the day went well. I stayed with my plan and I learned even more today. So overall a good day . So rather then wonder about the if, ands or buts, just be happy we can trade again tomorrow.

We got stopped on the long we had been holding. I am currently holding a longer timeframe short now by being long QID. From the chart here you can see the value area I am looking to see price break out to the upside from in order to give up my short.

Break Even Maybe?

Getting Ready For fresh Week

It is Sunday night. time to get ready for another week. I usually start by loking at the longerterm charts. Like for instance I am looking at goog, citi,and the index futures on weekly and daily charts. I will note key levels from these charts based on both a bar chart and a market profile composite. Another thing I like tohttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif start looking at is how overseas markets are .

QLD Trade

We got a nice QLD trade off this afternoon. Entering around 29.47 and taking it for about 40 ticks. I want to point out her tho that I took the signal and planted my targets based on the YM futures chart. Another example how one market can lead to signals that can be used in another market.
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A Late Start

I was not able to make the open today due to a meeting but I am just checking in with the markets now. From the YM market profile chart I see that so far today has been a typical 80% rule regression. We opened,tested higher ,got back to value and then tested to the other side of yesterdays value area. This is a typical regression. So what does it mean going forward today. Well it tells me that the market is in a mean reverting mood today. So I will use my value areas and midpoints as entries and exits.

Closing the Value Gap

I have been talking online about the fact that we have had room below based on the gap in value areas from 4.01.09 . From the market profile chart below we can see that we finally have closed that value area gap. today the market tried to get into the 4.01.09 value area and was rejected so let's wait for another test tomorrow to make a plan of attack.
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Going Nowhere Fast

Notice we are staying right in the channel of what is a developing value area. Not a good place to take trades.

Looking At The tick

During the opening bell I was watching this 9 second tick chart. I have it zoomed in enough to see some of yesterdays values. You can see from here how weak this makes todays open look. ALl very strong tick reading to the downside. This is a good signal to take a short position. However since it is the open and we know the market likes to test certain areas quickly on the bell we will move stops fast and take part of profit off as soon as we get some green. Then sit tight and wait for the tick to show some strength and how the market reacts to that.

A Market That Goes Nowhere

Today's trading range was small and on some super lower then normal volume. Where is everyone? I have no idea. This does not mean it was a wash of a trading day tho. We actually had a few decent trades and some that just went nowhere. We where able to get a piece of the v bottom around the 9:50 mark on the chart below. Which is really 12:50 for EST. However we took profits and and when we got to the bottom of our self proclaimed value area (the red line which is based on a regression channel) we noticed the market start to rotate. this is the point at which we took a few trades that just went nowhere. Small losses but still what I wanted to point out an learn from this was the fact that you can see these profiles in the blue boxed area rotating. If you note that the value area from profile to profile never really pushed higher or lower but distributed itself right inside for a few about 54 minutes. this based on the low volume was a very good signal to just step aside. This is why we took very small positions and used smaller stops knowing that the bigger move we caught earlier would still keep us in profit on the day.
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Look Out Below

looking at a Market Profile Chart we see a lot of room between the value areas from 4.01.09 and today. So this implies a decent amount of room down for price to revert. Looking at this chart of todays MP we see if looks like the rotation is about to go negative and test the lows of the day.

Weakness Spotted